Modeling and Computational Science


      The health and resiliency of coral reefs are functions of hundreds of anthropogenic and natural forces acting in concert. Many of these factors are documented and known widely to even non-coral reef scientists throughout the world. However, coastal managers and scientists need to have some idea as to what might happen if they implement this interventions or disturbances to the ecosystems as well as to the social and economic systems linked to those ecosystems. Coastal ecological and socioeconomic systems are too complex to make confident specific predictions, but coral reef science should be able to simulate the possible ‘outcome spaces’ of any given intervention or perturbation in the system. To help us better understand the real world, NCORE is engaged in the development of interdisciplinary models to replicate certain important features of the systems  in simulations.


      NCORE is involved in both classical equation-based modeling projects and projects to simulate complex non-linear systems with feedback loops, as one would expect in a coral reef ecosystem. The construction of these agent-based models rely heavily on NCORE's cumulative understanding of coral reef ecology and its relationships to socioeconomic systems.


Key Questions


How do we simulate the anthropogenic effects to the coral reef ecosystem in a data sparse situations?


What linkages and taxonomic attributes of the elements of a complex coral reef ecosystem that should be considered in developing models?


How do you initialize agent-based models and how do you analyze the emerging behavior of the global system?




PROJECT PI(s) Sponsor Dates
Biscayne Bay Nearshore Model  Wang, John D (AMP) NPS 7/27/2007 to 5/1/2008
Fl Toadds Model Development and Applications Wang, John D (AMP) USGS 7/20/2007 to 6/30/2008
Coral Reef Habitat Modeling To Support Ecosystem-Based Management Ault, Jerald S (MBF) NOAA 7/1/2007 to 6/30/2008
Integrated Ecological Assessment of Antigua and Barbuda  Kourafalou, Vassiliki (MPO), Lirman, Diego (MBF), McManus, John (MBF), Mcmanus, Liana (MAF), Reid, R. P (MGG), Shay, Lynn K (MPO), Zika, Rod (MAC) Stanford Foundation 6/1/2007 to 8/31/2008
Quality Control And Interpretation Of Environmental Data Glynn, Peter W (MBF) NOAA 5/1/2007 to 4/30/2008
Non-Hydrostatic Modeling of Coastal Discharges in Biscayne Bay Ozgokmen, Tamay M (MPO)  National Park Service 5/1/2007 to 5/1/2008
Antigua and Barbuda Coastal and Marine Ecosystem Management Program  McManus, John W (MBF) R Allen Stanford/Stanford Financial Group 11/1/2006 to 5/31/2012
A coupled bio-physical approach to fisheries habitat in the southeastern North Atlantic
Olson, Dan (MPO) NOAA 10/1/2006 to 10/30/2008
Analysis of Coral Reef Decline in Punta Cana: Identification of Proximal Causes and Potential Corrective Steps   Brand, Larry (MBF), McManus, John (MBF), McManus, Liana (MAF) Grupo Punta Cana 10/1/2006 to 8/31/2007
Collaborative Research: A Depositional and Paleoecological Model of Neogene Reef Development in the Dominican Republic  McNeill, Donald F (MGG)  NSF 5/1/2005 to  4/30/2007
Coupled natural and human dynamics in coral reef ecosystems: the effect of marine reserve network design and implementation on fisheries, biodiversity and human communities Olson, Don (MPO), Broad, Kenneth (MAF), McManus, Liana (MAF), McManus, John (MBF), Cowen, Robert (MBF) AMNH/NSF 10/15/2001 to 9/30/2007